You’re Doing Complexity All Wrong

By Derek Cabrera

Richard Branson recently said:

“Complexity is your enemy. Any fool can make something complicated. It is hard to make something simple.”

With respect to Branson, he couldn’t be more wrong. Not in his intent, but in his understanding. He’s conflating complexity, complicatedness, and simplicity—and they are not the same thing. To the scientists who study complex systems, complicated is the opposite of complex.

• Complicated is what micromanagers do. Complicated is what engineers do when they over engineer a product. It’s control-obsession, red tape, and unnecessary detail. Complicatedness is the opposite of complexity. If you are willing to give up control--which isn't a big ask because in complex systems like your organization or society you don't have it anyway--then you benefit from the real superpowers of complexity.

• Complexity is not your enemy. It is the 1000 pound gorilla who is your best friend. Complexity is life itself, and it’s the source of adaptability, resilience, and creativity. And, by the way, if you don't befriend complexity--he'll be someone else's gorilla.

• Simplicity is not the opposite of complexity—it’s the way you influence complexity. Simplicity is what the giant of complexity eats. If you can give up the need for control in order to get results, complexity becomes your ally. Simplicity without complexity is simplistic, not simple.

  
  

Which brings us to the point: most people are doing complexity all wrong. 

What We Call “Wicked Problems”

We often hear about “wicked” or “complex” problems—poverty, healthcare, education, inequality. These problems are framed as intractable, messy, impossible to solve. But what if that framing is itself a kind of bias? What if wicked problems aren’t wicked at all, but simply the reality of complexity?

At the core of complexity lies something both ordinary and profound: emergence.

What Emergence Really Is

Emergence is the behavior of the system itself—not the isolated actions of its parts or agents. Think of a black box. Inside, you hear all sorts of banging and clanging. The door opens, and out comes a clown. That clown is emergence: the surprising, collective behavior of the system.

Clown emergence

It can look magical or mysterious, but it isn’t. If you understand how the system is structured, emergence makes perfect sense.

POSIWID: The Purpose of the System Is What It Does

Emergence isn’t just noise—it’s the real purpose of the system. Stafford Beer said it best: the purpose of a system is what it does (POSIWID).

• Our education system doesn’t “educate.” Its emergent purpose is to bore students, burn out teachers, and sell products, while producing graduates unprepared emotionally, academically, and civically.

  
  

• Our healthcare system doesn’t primarily promote health. Its emergent purpose is profit—on both sides. Make people sick, then profit again from “curing” them.

  
  

• Our socioeconomic system doesn’t protect the middle class. Its emergent purpose is to expand inequality, concentrating wealth at the very top.

  
  

When we stop calling systems by their nominal names and start naming them by their emergent purposes, we begin to love reality. That is, we stop wishing for a system that doesn’t exist and start engaging with the one that does.

How Emergence Happens: Agents + Rules

Emergence isn’t mystical. It arises from two things:

1. Agents – the people, components, or elements in the system.

   
   

2. Interaction Rules – the simple mental models (DSRP perspectives) those agents share and act on.

   
   

Agents + rules → collective dynamics → emergent behavior. That’s it. If you want to change emergence, there are only two levers: change the agents, change the rules, or both.

This is why Darwin said that anyone who believes his theories should turn their gaze to education. Education is the leverage point because it simultaneously develops agents (people) and rules (culture). The same is true in corporations—hiring, firing, and culture-shaping matter so much because they determine the agents and the rules.

Wickedness Is a Mirage

When we label problems “wicked” or “intractable,” we create distance between ourselves and the system. We mystify it. But beneath the apparent complexity is a simple structure: agents + rules.

If we can see that structure, we can see emergence clearly.

And if we see emergence clearly, we can:

• Diagnose systems by their real purposes (POSIWID).

• Design strategies that shift agents and rules toward healthier emergent outcomes.

  
  

The Takeaway

Emergence is not magic. Wicked problems are not wicked. They are the natural result of systems at work. By focusing on the simple mechanics of agents and rules—and by naming systems by what they really do—we gain the clarity to design better ones.

If we love reality, we can see POSIWID—and only then can we change it.

The Tools

VMCL and DSRP are complexity friendly tools. VMCL helps us build a flock (and organic sociotechnical organization benefiting from complexity) rather than a clock (a complicated machine). DSRP helps us to be adaptive thinkers who can adapt to any situation life throws at us.